This thesis analyzes the fair prices of four company shares in Cement Sub Sector, namely Indocement Tungal Prakarsa (INTP), Semen Baturaja Tbk (SMBR), Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) and Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) method and Relative Valuation (RV) approaches; Price to Earning Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV). Then author provides the recommendation to investors whether the four stock values are in an overvalued, fairvalued, or undervalued condition and gives suggestion follow-up from the valuation results.
Each approach used three scenarios of optimistic, moderate and pessimistic. Historical data of the companies in the period of 2014-2018 was used as bases for the projection in the period of 2019-2023.
Results of this study indicated that by comparing the stock prices to their intrinsic value of the stock valuation of the DCF-FCFF, the stock market prices as of January 2, 2019 according to all scenarios showed that INTP, SMCB, and SMBR were overvalued, while SMGR were undervalued. Relative valuation using PER approach in all scenarios indicated overvalued INTP, SMGR, SMCB, and SMBR. Finally, through PBV approach the relative valuation of INTP and SMGR in optimic scenario were undervalued, while SMCB, and SMBR overvalued. In the moderate and pessimistic scenarios INTP, SMGR, SMCB, and SMBR were overvalued