- Permanent Income and the Black-White Test Score Gap / Jesse Rothstein and Nathan Wozny
Analysts often examine the black-white test score gap conditional on current family income. We describe a method for identifying the gap conditional on the family’s permanent income. Current income explains only about half as much of the black-white test gap as does permanent income, and the gap among families with the same permanent income is only 0.2 to 0.3 standard deviations in two commonly used samples. When we add permanent income to the controls used by Fryer and Levitt (2006), the unexplained gap in third grade shrinks below 0.15 SDs, less than half of what is found with their controls.
- College Major Choice and the Gender Gap / Basit Zafar
This paper studies how college majors are chosen, focusing on the underlying gender gap. I collect a data set of Northwestern University sophomores that contains their subjective expectations about choice-specific c outcomes, and estimate a model where majors are chosen under uncertainty. Enjoying coursework and gaining parents’ approval are the most important determinants in the choice for both genders. However, males and females differ in their preferences in the workplace, with males caring about the pecuniary outcomes in the workplace much more than females. The gender gap is mainly due to gender differences in preferences and tastes, and not because females are underconfident about their academic ability or fear monetary discrimination. The findings in this paper make a case for policies that change attitudes toward gender roles.
- Adoption Subsidies and Placement Outcomes for Children in Foster Care / Kasey S. Buckles
More than 400,000 children in the United States are currently in foster care, many of whom are at risk for long-lasting emotional and health problems. The Adoption Assistance and Child Welfare Act of 1980 provided federal funds for monthly adoption subsidies designed to promote adoptions of special-needs children and children in foster care. Using data from the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting Systems, I find that the number of adoptions increases when children become subsidy-eligible, and that most of the increase is from adoptions by foster parents. Conditional on adoption, subsidy eligibility decreases time spent in foster care.
- Wage Mobility of Foreign-Born Workers in the United States / Seik Kim
This paper presents new evidence on whether foreign-born workers assimilate. While the existing literature focuses on the convergence/divergence of average wages, this study extends the analysis to the distribution of wages by looking at wage mobility. We measure the foreign-native gap in year-to-year transition probabilities from one decile group to another of a wage distribution, where the deciles are determined by native samples. Our results, based on the Current Population Survey for 1996–2008, suggest that immigrants in middle and bottom decile groups, who are the majority of immigrants, tend to fall behind relative to natives in the same decile groups.
- Bounds on Average and Quantile Treatment Effects of Job Corps Training on Wages / German Blanco, Carlos A. Flores, and Alfonso Flores-Lagunes
We review and extend nonparametric partial identification results for average and quantile treatment effects in the presence of sample selection. These methods are applied to assessing the wage effects of Job Corps, United States’ largest job-training program targeting disadvantaged youth. Excluding Hispanics, our estimates suggest positive program effects on wages both at the mean and throughout the wage distribution. Across the demographic groups analyzed, the statistically significant estimated average and quantile treatment effects are bounded between 4.6 and 12 percent, and 2.7 and 14 percent, respectively. We also document that the program’s wage effects vary across quantiles and demographic groups.
- Do employers substitute adults for children, or do they treat them as complements? / Kirk B. Doran
Using data from a Mexican schooling experiment, I find that decreasing child farmwork is accompanied by increasing adult labor demand. This increase was not caused by treatment money reaching farm employers: there were no significant increases in harvest prices and quantities, nonlabor inputs, or nonfarm labor supply. Furthermore, coordinated movements in price and quantity can distinguish this increase in demand from changes in supply induced by the treatment’s income effects. Thus, declining child supply caused
increasing adult demand: employers substituted adults for children.
- Caught in the Bulimic Trap?: Persistence and State Dependence of Bulimia Among Young Women / John C. Ham, Daniela Iorio, and Michelle Sovinsky
Bulimia nervosa (BN) is a growing health concern and its consequences are especially serious given the compulsive nature of the disorder. However, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the persistent nature of BN. Using data from the NHLBI Growth and Health Study and instrumental variable techniques, we document that unobserved heterogeneity plays a role in the persistence of BN, but up to two-thirds of it is due to state dependence. Our findings suggest that the timing of policy is crucial: Preventive educational programs should be coupled with more intense (rehabilitation) treatment at the early stages of the BN behaviors.
- Migration Experience and Earnings in the Mexican Labor Market / Steffen Reinhold and Kevin Thom
We present a theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between U.S. migration experience and earnings in the Mexican labor market. We use our model to analyze the effects of self-selection and endogeneity on OLS estimates of the return to migration experience in the Mexican labor market. Under plausible assumptions, OLS estimates provide a lower bound on the true average return to migration experience among return migrants. Using Mexican Migration Project (MMP) data, we find a return to migration experience of about 2.2 percent per year. Our estimates are robust to the inclusion of proxies for unobserved skill. A comparison with patterns in the 1995 Mexican Population and Dwelling Count suggests that our results are robust across data sets and are driven by a relationship between migration experience and wages, not hours worked. We also explore the plausibility of multiple mechanisms that could explain this relationship. We find the most evidence for the theory that individuals are acquiring occupation-specific work experience in the United States. The return to a year of occupation-specific migration experience is estimated to be as high as 8.7 percent for some occupations.
- Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence?: Evidence from Expansions to Castle Doctrine / Cheng Cheng and Mark Hoekstra
From 2000 to 2010, more than 20 states passed so-called “Castle Doctrine” or “stand your ground” laws. These laws expand the legal justification for the use of lethal force in self-defense, thereby lowering the expected cost of using lethal force and increasing the expected cost of committing violent crime. This paper exploits the within-state variation in self-defense law to examine their effect on homicides and violent crime. Results indicate the laws do not deter burglary, robbery, or aggravated assault. In contrast, they lead to a statistically significant 8 percent net increase in the number of reported murders and nonnegligent manslaughters.