Estimating SIR Model Parameters for Predicting Covid-19 Cases in Bandung City - Dalam bentuk buku karya ilmiah
KAHFI M BINTANG

Informasi Umum

Kode

25.05.240

Klasifikasi

000 - General Works

Jenis

Karya Ilmiah - Thesis (S2) - Reference

Subjek

Applied--mathematical Models.

Dilihat

83 kali

Informasi Lainnya

Abstraksi

Bandung City Government has issued a Mayor’s Circular regarding the prevention and<br /> handling of Covid-19. Therefore, on December 3rd 2020, the city of Bandung again im-<br /> pose large-scale social restrictions or known as Pembatasan Sosial Bersekala Besar (PSBB).<br /> That means there are restrictions activities of citizens, especially in public spaces. Since<br /> March 15, 2020, the Bandung City Government has issued a Mayor’s Circular regarding<br /> the prevention and handling of Covid-19. Enforce Restrictions on Community Activities<br /> (PPKM) means a government regulation that limits community activities, especially re-<br /> lated to the potential for crowds. To approach the problem of estimating SIR (Susceptible,<br /> Infected, Recovered) model parameters for predicting COVID-19 cases in Bandung City.<br /> While the SIR model has been applied in numerous settings to understand and predict<br /> the dynamics of COVID-19, the accuracy of these predictions significantly depends on the<br /> precise estimation of model parameters, including the rate of transmission (?), recovery<br /> rate (?). Extended the approximation method of Euler to a mere elaborate scheme which<br /> was capable of greater accuracy. The idea of Euler was to propagate the solution of an<br /> initial value problem forward by a sequence of small time-steps. We found that the SIR<br /> method is successful to describe the infected profile using several experiments. SIR model<br /> for data set of Covid-19 first wave in Bandung city, start in July 4th, 2021 until October<br /> 10th, 2021. there were 87,288 cases that occurred until July 7 2022 which could indicate<br /> that this increase in suspects is very large for regions in Indonesia, The values of this ex-<br /> periment are 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5. While the infection rate has started to decline, if we look<br /> at July 4th, 2021, there is a significant increase in the range of 26,771 cases. We compare<br /> with the second wave of Covid-19 (Omicron), these results have different value parameters<br /> of (?). (?) = 0.1 the SIR model is quite far from the peak of the second wave of covid-19,<br /> meanwhile (?) = 0.2 very close to the real active cases data, and (?) = 0.3 is very far from<br /> the peak of the original Covid-19 data. Overall, the SIR method is successful to describe<br /> the infected profile using several experiments, these results yield a good comparison be-<br /> tween numerical simulation.<br /> <br /> Keywords: SIR, Covid-19, Runge-Kutta, Omicron, ?.

• CSG513 - SOCIO INFORMATICS
• CII733 - TESIS

Koleksi & Sirkulasi

Tersedia 1 dari total 1 Koleksi

Pengarang

Nama	KAHFI M BINTANG
Jenis	Perorangan
Penyunting	Putu Harry Gunawan
Penerjemah

Penerbit

Nama	Universitas Telkom, S2 Informatika
Kota	Bandung
Tahun	2025

Sirkulasi

Harga sewa	IDR 0,00
Denda harian	IDR 0,00
Jenis	Non-Sirkulasi

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